Miner sell pressure typically spikes in the months after a halving. Block rewards get cut in half, margins compress, and weaker operations liquidate holdings to cover electricity costs. That’s the pattern from 2020 and 2024. What’s happening in the second half of 2026 looks different.

On-chain data shows miner outflows to exchanges have stayed unusually low since roughly June - a stretch that now covers nearly four months. Miner wallet balances at several large publicly tracked pools have held relatively flat or grown slightly. The straightforward interpretation is that miners are confident in Bitcoin’s price trajectory and choosing to accumulate rather than sell. But there’s a less comfortable reading: some portion of this behavior reflects miners who can’t sell at current prices without locking in losses they’d rather defer.

The Cost Problem Hasn’t Gone Away

The April 2024 halving dropped the block subsidy to 3.125 BTC. The 2028 halving will cut it again. Miners running older-generation ASICs - particularly S19-era hardware still common in lower-cost jurisdictions - are operating at thin or negative margins depending on local power rates. Energy prices in parts of the U.S. and Europe have remained elevated compared to 2020 levels, and that cost base doesn’t compress just because Bitcoin’s price rises moderately.

Some miners are genuinely profitable and holding strategically. Others appear to be HODLing out of necessity, waiting for a price level that justifies selling. The aggregate on-chain signal looks similar; the underlying reasons are not.

Transaction Fees Aren’t Filling the Gap

Fee revenue was supposed to gradually replace subsidy income as Bitcoin matures. That theory is taking longer to play out than many expected. Fee spikes tied to Ordinals activity in 2023 and early 2024 briefly made the economics look encouraging. Since then, fee revenue per block has remained modest relative to what miners need to meaningfully offset the reduced subsidy.

The network’s long-term security model depends on fees eventually sustaining miner participation. Whether that happens through higher base fees, a sustained Ordinals-style demand wave, or something not yet visible is an open question - and one the 2028 halving will make considerably more pressing.